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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats also suffered as the far-right Alternative for Germany shrugged off the scandals to make huge gains.
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party, which has neo-fascist roots, won more than 28 percent of the national vote for the EU assembly, which would make it a key player in forming future unions.
Green and pro-business liberal groups across Europe suffered heavy defeats, but grassroots parties held their ground, with the centre-right European People’s Party remaining the largest bloc in the 27-member EU assembly.
A political earthquake in France
Voters in France will return to the polls in just three weeks after Macron dissolved parliament and called early national elections.
Le Pen’s anti-immigration nationalist party is expected to get around 31-32 percent of the vote.
Although a victory in the National Rally was expected, the scale of the victory was a surprise, doubling the share of Macron’s Revival Party, which had been expected to reach around 15 percent.
By mid-July, it should be clear whether a weakened Macron will be forced to work with a far-right government in an uncomfortable “coexistence.”
The scandals hurt the hard right in Germany a bit
Scholz’s ruling Social Democrats recorded their worst result since World War II in a nationwide vote with 13.9 percent.
Alternative for Germany finished in second place with around 15.9 percent. The far-right party has suffered a series of recent setbacks, including scandals surrounding its two leading candidates in the European Parliament elections.
But voters seem to have ignored them. The result was better than the AfD’s 11 percent in 2019, but still lower than poll estimates earlier this year.
Germany’s opposition center-right Union bloc took 30 percent of the vote.
The pro-European center holds
The centre-right European People’s Party is expected to win 191 seats in the EU Assembly and remains the largest group.
The EPP picked up a few more seats, but the parliament is also expanding from 705 seats in 2019 to 720 seats this year, so the increase was minor.
The second-largest bloc, the center-left Socialists and Democrats, lost some ground, but with 135 seats it comfortably holds its seat.
EPP front-runner Ursula von der Leyen flirted with right-wing parties during the election campaign, but after the first results were announced, she called on socialists and pro-business liberals to work together in a pro-European union.
The Greens and Liberals are taking a hit
The environmentalists the Greens were perhaps the biggest losers overall.
They are likely to lose around 20 seats in the European Parliament, almost a third of their 2019 numbers.
A series of protests across Europe by farmers angry at the burden imposed by new climate laws have helped dampen their chances.
The EU is considered a world leader in the fight against global warming. Senior members hoped that Green parties, already in government in places such as Germany, would retain their positions.
But forecasts suggest Germany’s Greens, the second-largest party in Scholz’s coalition, will fall from a peak of 20.5 percent five years ago to around 12 percent.
Liberal parties across Europe, including Macron’s, were also expected to give a total of 20 seats in parliament, making them the other biggest losers in this election.
Senior party officials and number-crunchers gathered on Monday to discuss what groups and alliances might be formed in parliament over the next five years.
The party presidents will hold their first official talks on Tuesday.
One thing is clear: the results will slow down decision-making and legislation on issues ranging from climate change to farm subsidies.
EU presidents and prime ministers will hold a summit on June 17 to review the results.
They will also discuss whether to return von der Leyen to head the EU’s powerful executive, the European Commission.
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